The Ides of March

In retail, we all know that March can be a difficult and challenging month…unless, of course, Easter is in March. But it struck me that March has been a benchmark month for the last 4-5 years, and it’s worth devoting this article to. 

Let’s start with a little history lesson…
The Ides of March is recognised as the 15th of March - so, apologies that I’m running a little late! It is 74 days after the start of the Roman New Year. Interestingly, back in ancient times, it was recognised as the day where all debts were settled, and of course, the Romans being Pagan, they celebrated a number of their Gods and Deities on this day. Most of us remember the Ides of March as it was the day that Julius Caesar was assassinated, which Shakespeare made famous - "Beware the ides of March". 

Now, within the context of caution, let’s look at retail in the last 4 years in Australia…starting with March 2020 aka The Covid Pandemic, and indeed by the middle of March, our country was in lockdown. Retail crashed, and we were fixated on cashflow. Surprisingly, most retailers pivoted and accelerated their technology and e-comm platforms, but you could say that those first 4 months, before the full effect of the government subsidy came into place, were tough like no other period we’ve ever seen.

Now onto March 2021…with continued lockdowns and changing consumer behaviour, mixed in with the massive growth in e-comm, where even the over 50’s started dipping their toes in for the first time.,changing their entrenched behaviours. CBD retail was a ghost town, but local / High Street began to flourish as we rediscovered our local communities, motivated by our need for human contact. Along the way, we learnt a lot about hygiene, hobbies, our homes, help via connection, and personal health and fitness (including mental health). You could argue that in this year, we saw more change in consumer behaviour than in the 15 years before.

Now, let’s look at March 2022. Most businesses had invested appropriate in technology, ecommerce, and omnichannel, and were beginning to stabilise their businesses under new structures and new cost bases, setting them up for a very successful calendar 22’ retail bonanza - with the consumer desperate to spend those government subsidies and their savings.

Now, let’s move onto March 2023. And fizz…we go from feast to famine. Capital markets dry up, the consumer becomes more cautious and value orientated, and increasing mortgage rates impact young establishing families. Retail slows, and accordingly,  23’ is the year that retail gets very close to being in recession. Only super bargain value activities and events like Black Friday / Cyber Week / Boxing Day / Singles Day and the like, save the retail sales line.

And here we are, March 2024. There is a sense of optimism as successful businesses have identified and gotten to know their customer (much better than they ever have before!). They’ve invested in technological systems and cost reduction. Supply chains are settling, relationships with China are thawing. And where 23’ was a year of bumping along the bottom, the sense we get from talking to a lot of retailers across all categories, from commodity to discretionary, is that things are stabilising and slowly but surely, improving.

2 weeks ago at our BIG Breakfast, Pippa and Maddy Kulmar eloquently talked about the nature of retail mimicking the seasons – not linear, but instead cyclical. They talked about Summer, Autumn, Winter & Spring. And although I talk about the Idea of March in this article, the points of reference between our information are founded in the same data and assessments. 

Looking to financial year 24-25, I’d suggest being cautiously optimistic on the assumption that you’re well invested in customer knowledge and data, technology, people, and cost base. 

As always, I’m more than happy to talk further on the subject and detail out the data points and qualitative assessments…let’s chat.